Germany will need to take in 300,000 migrants annually for the next 40 years to stop population decline, according to a leaked government report.
The document, parts of which were published by the Rheinische Post on February 1, reveals that the German government is counting on permanent mass migration — presumably from Africa, Asia and the Middle East — to keep the current size of the German population (82.8 million) stable through 2060.
The report implies that Chancellor Angela Merkel’s decision to allow into the country some 1.5 million mostly Muslim migrants between 2015 and 2016 was not primarily a humanitarian gesture, but a calculated effort to stave off Germany’s demographic decline and to preserve the future viability of the German welfare state.
If most of the new migrants arriving in Germany for the next four decades are from the Islamic world, the Muslim population of Germany could jump to well over 20 million and account for more than 25% of the overall German population by 2060.
Mass migration is fast-tracking the rise of Islam in Germany, as evidenced by the proliferation of no-go zones, Sharia courts, polygamy, child marriages and honor violence. Mass migration has also been responsible for social chaos, including jihadist attacks, a migrant rape epidemic, a public health crisis, rising crime and a rush by German citizens to purchase weapons for self-defense — and even to abandon Germany altogether.
The report stresses the need quickly to integrate migrants into the workforce so that they can begin paying into the social welfare system. “According to past experience, this will not be easy and will take longer than initially often hoped,” the report concedes. “Successes will only be visible in the medium to long term.”
A recent survey by the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung found that the 30 biggest German companies have employed only 54 refugees, including 50 who have been hired as couriers by Deutsche Post, the logistics provider. Company executives said the main problem is that migrants lack professional qualifications and German language skills.
For now, the vast majority of migrants who entered Germany in 2015 and 2016 are wards of the German state. German taxpayers payed around €21.7 billion ($23.4 billion) on aid for refugees and asylum seekers in 2016, and will pay a similar amount in 2017.
Mass migration has also increased the demand for housing and has pushed up rental costs for ordinary Germans. Some 350,000 new apartments are required each year to meet demand, but only 245,000 apartments were built in 2014, and another 248,000 in 2015, according to the Rheinische Post.
Meanwhile, migrants committed 208,344 crimes in 2015, according to a police report. This figure represented an 80% increase over 2014 and worked out to around 570 crimes committed by migrants every day, or 23 crimes each hour, between January and December 2015.
A leaked German intelligence document warned that mass migration from the Muslim world will lead to increasing political instability in the country. The document warned that the “integration of hundreds of thousands of illegal migrants will be impossible given the large numbers involved and the already-existing Muslim parallel societies in Germany.” The document added:
“We are importing Islamic extremism, Arab anti-Semitism, national and ethnic conflicts of other peoples, as well as a different understanding of society and law. German security agencies are unable to deal with these imported security problems, and the resulting reactions from the German population.”
A recent YouGov poll found that 68% of Germans believe that security in the country has deteriorated due to mass migration. Nearly 70% of respondents said they fear for their lives and property in German train stations and subways, while 63% feel unsafe at large public events.
An INSA poll found that 60% of Germans believe that Islam does not belong to Germany. Nearly half (46%) of those surveyed said they are worried about the “Islamization” of Germany.
In addition to the newcomers, the rate of population increase of the Muslim community already living in Germany is around 1.6% per year (or 77,000), according to data extrapolated from a Pew Research Center study on the growth of the Muslim population in Europe.
Based on Pew projections, which were proffered before the current migration crisis, the Muslim population of Germany was to have reached an estimated 5,145,000 by the end of 2015.
Adding the 800,000 Muslim migrants who arrived in Germany in 2015, and the 240,000 who arrived in 2016, combined with the 77,000 natural increase, the Muslim population of Germany jumped by 1,117,000, to reach an estimated 6,262,000 by the end of 2016. This amounts to approximately 7.6% of Germany’s overall population of 82.8 million.
The Muslim population of Germany could swell to 20 million as early as 2020, according to the president of the Bavarian Association of Municipalities (Bayerische Gemeindetag), Uwe Brandl. His forecast is based on so-called family reunifications — individuals whose asylum applications are approved will subsequently bring between four and eight additional family members to Germany.
More than a decade ago historian Bernard Lewis warned that if current migration trends continue, Europe will be Islamic by the end of the 21st century. Germany’s political elites are in the vanguard of making that prediction come true.
Soeren Kern is a Senior Fellow at the New York-based Gatestone Institute. This is an edited version of an article that appeared on the Gatestone website on February 8.